The Ultimate NFL 2024 Season Betting Guide

I am an NFL handicapper...

Author

Danny Healey
August 28, 2024

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The 2024 NFL season is here.

Wow.

Life has meaning again. Football is perfect. It’s everything.

I put together the ultimate NFL season gambling guide to launch some juicy season futures before next week’s season kick-off.

We focus on a few areas today:

  • Team O/U win totals

  • Division Standings Predictions

  • Super Bowl Matchup & Winner

  • Award Winners

I pay for premium info gambling subscription. Listen to way too many football podcasts. Ipso facto, I am an expert. Your money is safe, I promise!

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Follow me on Twitter for my weekly locks on game spreads and player props moving forward.

NFL Team Win Totals & Division Predictions

I will rank each team in order of how I think they will finish in their division.

The number in ( ) is the Vegas line for their win total and I’ll say whether they will be OVER or UNDER that number.

Then will add some color for each team.

Info from on strength of schedule came from Warren Sharp. One of the best gamblers in the business. I also pay for the Action Network subscription that gives out great info on schedules.

Here’s how 2024 will play out…

AFC East

  1. Miami Dolphins (9.5): OVER - Dolphins should only get better with that offense having more time together. I expect points galore like we saw last season and the defense improved adding two former All-Pros on that side of the ball. HAMMER this total.

  2. New York Jets (9.5): OVER - Aaron Rodgers is healthy. This defense is LEGIT. Playmakers on offense are younger guys. 4th easiest schedule in the NFL. They hit 10 wins and make the playoffs.

  3. Buffalo Bills (10.5): UNDER - Loss of Stefon Diggs is huge and they didn’t do much in free agency or the draft to improve. Josh Allen can’t do this alone. A sloppy season in 2023 almost got HC Sean McDermott fired. He gets fired in 2024.

  4. New England Patriots (4.5): OVER - Yes, there is a rookie HC, bad O-Line and Drake Maye is unproven but this defense is VERY underrated. They won’t scare the playoffs but win 5 games is doable.

AFC North

  1. Baltimore Ravens (11.5): OVER - Lamar had an MVP 2023 season and I don’t think he slows down with added threats on offense. This defense is tough every year. I think they take the #1 seed in the AFC again.

  2. Cincinnati Bengals (10.5): OVER - Joe Burrow is healthy and rested, that’s pretty much all that needs to be said. Him and Ja’Marr Chase pick up right where they left off. They won 4 games with a back-up QB last season. They take advantage of the 6th easiest schedule in the NFL this year.

  3. Cleveland Browns (8.5): UNDER - Deshaun Watson is healthy, but is he even good anymore? They looked better with Joe Flacco at QB last season. The defense was historically good last season, but with the 3rd hardest schedule in the NFL, 9 wins is a lot to ask for.

  4. Pittsburgh Steelers (8.5): UNDER - Hardest strength of schedule in the NFL. Justin Fields or Russ Wilson at QB will not get them over the hump. This under line may be the easiest smash of all-time.

AFC South

  1. Houston Texans (9.5): OVER - This team won 10 games in a year they were supposed to win 5. C.J. Stroud put the league on notice and will only get better this year with Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon in the building and another year of pro ball under his belt.

  2. Jacksonville Jaguars (8.5): OVER - Trevor Lawrence gets better this season and they win exactly 9 games, a repeat of 2023. 14th easiest schedule.

  3. Indianapolis Colts (8.5): UNDER - Second year QB Anthony Richardson may end up on SportsCenter Top 10 every week but that doesn’t win you football games. Competitive team that will fall short.

  4. Tennessee Titans (6.5): UNDER - First year HC. Will Levis isn’t very good. Derrick Henry gone. DeAndre Hopkins is old and already hurt. 6th hardest schedule. Team is in the running for #1 overall pick in 2025.

AFC West

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (11.5): OVER - Patrick Mahomes. Travis Kelce. Andy Ried. I’ve faded them too many times. Won’t get burned again. They had a “poor” 2023 regular season and still won 11 games.

  2. L.A. Chargers (8.5): OVER - Jim Harbaugh changes the culture. Justin Herbert gets over the hump this year. They have the second easiest schedule in the NFL.

  3. Las Vegas Raiders (6.5): UNDER - Antonio Pierce mojo wears off in Year 2. Who is their QB? Huge concern that Davante Adams is already bitching about poor QB play in preseason. 9th hardest schedule in the NFL.

  4. Denver Broncos (5.5): UNDER - Bo Nix is going to surprise people as QB1, but still this team isn’t a threat. Jerry Jeudy is gone. 8th hardest schedule. But honestly stay away from betting this line, they could hit 6 games on some mile-high flukes.

Dak Prescott Celebration GIF by The Undroppables

NFC East

  1. Dallas Cowboys (10.5): OVER - Dak Prescott is coming off his best season yet. CeeDee Lamb is a Top 2 WR in the NFL and not 2. 12 wins last season seems very on par for this 2024 team with a chance at the #1 seed

  2. Philadelphia Eagles (10.5): UNDER - This is a talented roster and really depends on the health of Jalen Hurts. He was banged up end of last season and this team was a disaster. I think the trend continues

  3. Washington Commanders (6.5): OVER - Jayden Daniels looks very promising and should make a splash. This team has an underrated roster + a defense that should be better in 2024

  4. New York Giants (6.5): UNDER - They were 6-11 last season and the Giants did not get better. They still have Daniel Jones at QB. I don’t care if he’s dating Kay Adams or not, he’s not the guy.

NFC North 

  1. Detroit Lions (10.5): OVER - The reigning NFC finalists will pick up right where they left off only being more experienced as a unit. Maybe the best home-field advantage in the NFL. Just look at Goff’s home vs. away stats.

  2. Chicago Bears (8.5): OVER - #1 Overall pick Caleb Williams has dazzled in pre-season and they have the best trio of WRs in the NFL by a wide margin. This defense was already good last season. They have the third easiest schedule in the NFL. This team gets to 10 wins and the playoffs

  3. Green Bay Packers (10.5): UNDER - Quickly this division became one of the strongest in football. Yes, Jordon Love has arrived and signed the richest NFL contract ever, but threatening playmakers lack in this offense. 10 wins, not 11 in Green Bay.

  4. Minnesota Vikings (6.5): UNDER - J.J. McCarthy is out for the season. Sam Darnold is meh. Roster isn’t great. 5th hardest schedule. Last place finish is a lock in this division.

NFC South

  1. Atlanta Falcons (9.5): OVER - Easiest schedule in the NFL by a wide margin. New $100M QB in Kirk Cousins. Brand new coaching staff from the Sean McVay coaching tree that will use Drake Londan, Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts correctly. Good defense. This team has 10 wins written all over them.

  2. Tampa Bay Bucs (8.5): UNDER - Baker Mayfield is the guy in Tampa but they haven’t done a whole lot to improve the roster with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin aging. 9 wins a season ago was a surprise and they don’t do it again.

  3. New Orleans Saints (7.5): UNDER - Derek Carr wasn’t good in hist first season in the Bayou as they only won 7 games (he was hurt a bit). Predict the same type of season down there - another line I am not confident in betting though. Could easily get to 8 games just given how bad this division is but still a really bad roster.

  4. Carolina Panthers (4.5): UNDER - If this team wins 2 games again I’d be shocked. Zero would make more sense. If the Carolina front office wasn’t clear Bryce Young was the wrong pick at #1 overall, then this season they will be convinced. Hammer this line.

NFC West

  1. San Francisco 49ers (11.5): OVER - Just because this team lost in the Super Bowl does not mean they will cool off. They will just be more motivated. They lost no important pieces, not even Brandon Ayuik. People are sleeping on the Niners this season and I can’t figure out why.

  2. L.A. Rams (8.5): OVER - One of my most confident picks as Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp are fully healthy. This team won 10 games last year and they have one of the best offenses in football with an elite play-caller.

  3. Arizona Cardinals (6.5): UNDER - This team gets better in 2024, but 7 wins is a lot to ask for from this roster. They should be able to score points but the defense is atrocious. 6-11 is the final from this group in a hard division.

  4. Seattle Seahawks (7.5): UNDER - I’m over the Gino Smith hype train, if there ever was one. This roster didn’t do much to improve and a tougher NFC conference this year will hurt their chances of 8 wins.

Notes on 2023 Strength Schedule:

  • In 2023, only 5 teams in the top 15 of hardest strength of schedule finished with winning records

  • On the flip side, Of the 15 teams with the easiest schedule heading into 2023, 11 finished with winning records

  • Of the 7 teams forecast to finish at or below .500 and predicted to have harder than average schedules, all 7 had losing records and 6 went under their win total

My Super Bowl Prediction:

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Franciso 49ers: Niners Win (+600)

Season Award Winners

National Football League Laughing GIF by New York Jets

Comeback Player of the Year:

  • NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers (+140) - Big name and big moment of an injury in 2023 sets this one up nicely. Also, will just play really, really well all season.

  • Longshot - CLE RB Nick Chubb (+1100)

Defensive Rookie of the Year:

  • IND DE Laiatu Latu (+425) - Yes, he’s a favorite, but more money is going towards MIN DE Dallas Turner, which is a mistake as the former UCLA pass-rusher will dazzle in Indy.

  • Longshot - PHI CB Cooper DeJean (+3500)

Offensive Rookie of the Year:

  • CHI QB Caleb Williams (+135) - Him not being -200 is shocking and I think he runs away with this award by Week 10. Will never be in doubt.

  • Longshot - BUF WR Keon Coleman (+3500)

Defensive Player of the Year:

  • DAL DE Micah Parsons (+550) - After winning the RDOY in 2021, Micah has not yet got the DPOY but been in the Top 5 in voting every season. This is the year it happens.

  • Longshot - NYJ CB Sauce Gardner (+6000)

MVP

  • MVP: SF QB Brock Purdy (+1800) - He placed 4th in voting last season and has the 10th highest odds heading into 2024. He’s going to be better in his third NFL season with Kyle Shannahan and this offense. His weapons are insane and offensive line keeps him protected. He brings SF an MVP season topped off with a Super Bowl victory.

  • Longshot - IND QB Anthony Richardson (+3000)

Well, you’re welcome. I just gave you the script to the 2024 NFL season.

You have 8 days to get those NFL futures in. May the odds ever be in your favor!

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